Pinnacle line movement. Why doesn't Pinnacle cut the limits? BC line loads

Bookmaker's office Pinnacle embodies best qualities bookmaker: reliability, integrity, the most favorable odds, etc.

Bookmakers all over the world rely on the Pinacle bookmaker, namely on the Pinnacle BC odds. It's no secret that bookmaker odds constantly change their values, or as sports traders say, “odds move.” In many ways, the movement of odds in bookmakers is due to the movement of odds in Pinnacle bookmaker. Since Pinnaclesports is considered the No. 1 brand in the bookmaker world and offers its clients the most favorable odds (Pinnacle margin is only 2%), all bookmakers “monitor” Pinnacle’s opinion and quickly respond to changes in odds so as not to fall into arbitrage situations.

BC Pinnacle has the largest client base of players all over the world, this bookmaker takes 1st place in all ratings and therefore we recommend our clients to play at this bookmaker, and also offer a set of tools for analyzing the movement of odds in Pinnacle.

One of the main tools for a successful capper is notification of the appearance of odds at the Pinnacle bookmaker football matches. As written above, most bookmakers move their odds based on the movement in Pinnacle, and if you are one of the first to receive start line alert With Pinnaclesports bookmaker, you get great opportunities to place bets at favorable odds.

The betting strategy based on initial odds is considered one of the most profitable strategies for a successful capper. The initial line of sports odds does not take into account many factors, such as: recent player injuries, roster rotation, applications for the game, various news and possible events that you know about or expect to happen. Such factors will undoubtedly affect the outcome of the match, which means that the odds will “fall.” By notifying you about the appearance of the initial odds in Pinncale, you will have time to place bets at favorable odds, and in the long run such bets will give a positive result.

To receive notifications to your email about the appearance of odds in bookmaker Pinnacle for certain leagues or matches, you must be registered in the Mellbet bookmaker odds monitoring service. When you go to your profile, find the " " tab,

make a selection in this tab football leagues or tournaments for which you want to receive notifications to email about the appearance of odds in bookmaker Pinnacle. You can choose 2 ways to notify about initial odds:

1. Asian handicaps AN - when odds appear in BC Pinnacle, notifications will be sent to your email with matches where odds for Asian handicaps have appeared in the leagues you have chosen;

Everyone knows that 99% of bookmakers cut the accounts of successful players (especially large ones) and “arbers”. For what?

The fact is that the average bookmaker makes money from the losses of its clients. Therefore, they get rid of winning players and arbers who exploit errors in the line as quickly as possible. Nobody wants to pay, and paying a lot is generally unacceptable. Amateur bookmakers should be avoided by players who want to take bets seriously.

Only professional companies and betting exchanges do not limit bet maximums.

Pinnacle is the number 1 bookmaker for the professional. Why doesn’t Pinnacle cut bets, but instead increases the limits?

A professional bookmaker makes money not from the losses of clients, but from the turnover of funds! Pinnacle is interested in maximizing the volume of bets; the more bets, the better. From the turnover, the Pinnacle bookmaker takes its percentage of 1.5-2.5% (margin).

Let’s say that several or professionals bet impressive amounts on one outcome P1 (the line load occurs), then the bookmaker’s protection is triggered, and the odds on P2 increase, and on P1, on the contrary, they decrease, thereby attracting players to bet on this result. In this way, the bookmaker balances the line and will be in profit in any situation.

An example of bookmakers reducing odds (line loading)

Why can't other bookmakers work like this?

The Pinnacle line is not the longest, but it is regulated by its traders in a timely manner and there are practically no errors in it.

The limits at Pinnacle, unlike other bookmakers, are the same regardless of the odds (you can bet 10,000 USD on both P2 with odds of 1.25 and P1 with odds of 8).

For example, there is a strong load on the line towards TB2.5. The company promptly adjusts the coefficients, significantly reducing them at TB2.5 and increasing them at TM2.5. As a result, an overestimated odds or an arbitrage situation with other bookmakers arises. “Valuists” and “arbers” will not miss the benefits and will begin to bet huge amounts on TM2.5, thereby leveling the Pinnacle line. That is why the company is so fond of clients who make inflated odds (when the odds are higher than the mathematical expectation). It is convenient to monitor line movement graphs in a special Pinnacle Lite.

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Movement of odds in a bookmaker's office

You've probably noticed more than once how bookmakers' odds for various events change several times throughout the day. At the same time, it is very difficult to predict how and by what amount the odds at bookmakers will change. Sometimes the coefficient changes slightly, but sometimes it can change significantly. We will try to understand the reasons for changing the odds in the line of bookmakers, as well as how to use it in this article. Let me remind you that the value of the coefficient significantly affects the profit in long-term play. Therefore, we recommend the most reliable and best bookmaker with the most high odds Pinnaclesports.

"Load" of the bookmaker's line

Changes in bookmaker odds occur for various reasons, such as injuries, team composition, weather, motivation and a number of other important factors not taken into account during the initial setting of odds. However there is one more important factor, influencing changes in quotes like no other. This factor is the “load” of the line. “Loading” means the accumulation of a large amount of money on one of the outcomes. Naturally, bookmakers do not like it when, for reasons that are not entirely clear to them, huge amounts of money are bet on one sporting event. Firstly, this raises certain suspicions that the match is of a fixed nature, and secondly, it negatively affects the equalization of the bookmaker’s profits. Naturally, the bookmaker’s response to the “overload” of a certain coefficient is to lower it. However, it is worth noting that not every change in the odds at a bookmaker is a “load”.

Types of “load” in bookmakers

There are two main types of “load”: amateur and “smart”. In the first case, the “load” is carried out by simple sports betting fans, many of whom may not even be aware of the existence of “loads”. Amateur “programs” are usually formed through spontaneous accumulation of money large quantity players on one of the outcomes (usually the favorite). Moreover, this is done without deliberate collusion, but simply because “the favorite must win.” Bookmakers usually do not take into account amateur “load” when adjusting their odds.

Bookmakers are much more afraid of smart “loading” carried out by large professional players, cappers and syndicates. These people don’t just bet their money, and if large sums of “smart” money are “loaded” onto some odds, then bookmakers try to quickly respond to these actions. It’s no secret that all bookmakers monitor each other’s odds in order to always be aware of the “loads” and movements of their competitors’ lines. Usually, in the case of a simultaneous movement of the odds in several offices by two or three points, the remaining bookmakers try to immediately equalize the odds so as not to be the next victim of the “overload”. Unlike an amateur “weight,” a smart “weight” bends the line immediately and significantly.

Basic, driving force The “smart forecasters” are cappers, major players in bookmakers and members of syndicates. The goal of all these people is value betting, that is, bets at inflated odds. Having discovered such odds, players bet on them large sums, which causes the line to sag.

Large players and syndicate members have the greatest influence on quotes. The former take it as their gaming “bank”, which allows them to operate with considerable sums. The second is the number of players. Players who subscribe to the forecast of a professional capper usually place decent bets. In this regard, the total “load” of the members of one such syndicate turns out to be quite significant. More detailed information about the "smart money" movement you will find.

Only a professional player can determine the value of a bet from bookmakers, so most of the betters who want to profit favorable rates, join syndicates purchasing verified forecasts professional players who have been making forecasts for many years. Members of a syndicate usually have an advantage over players hunting for value alone, since the efficiency of forecasters is higher than that of most solo players. Consequently, syndicate members place their bets earlier, which is a very important advantage, since after the first wave of “loading” the coefficient drops significantly. This means that those who bet later will bet at a lower odds, which by then, as a rule, will cease to be “valuable”.

Current movement of odds and loads for sporting events

A value bet is a bet with an advantage over the line in terms of the probability of the outcome of events. That is, if the bookmaker believes that the probability of each tennis player winning is 50% to 50%, and you think that the probability is 55% to 45%, then you play for the outcome whose probability in your opinion = 55%. IN in this case The bet is considered a value bet because you made it with an advantage over the line, or as it is correct to say: with a positive mate. waiting. If you constantly place bets with a positive mathematical expectation, then you will be in the black at a distance (this advantage, naturally, should cover the bookmaker’s margin).

A table to help you:

For example, the match Querrey - Raonic. If you estimate the probability of this event to be 50/50, you do not see any advantages in any of the tennis players, then both a bet with odds greater than 2 on Querrey and a bet with odds more than 2 on Raonic. Both bets will be for value. Those. in fact, while the odds were moving here, you could play 2+ for both Querrey and Raonic, and both bets would be value if real probability the outcome of the event is 50/50.

From 9 to 12 am on Querri it even reached 2.16

There are no values ​​in “kick”!

Now let's dispel the myth that there are no values ​​in Pinnacle, because... there are the most professional analysts who set the line as competently as possible. And for us, ordinary people who are sitting at home at the computer with a glass of beer, it is quite difficult to do more accurate analysis than a professional team at a top bookmaker does.

This is partly true, but not all. Let me give you a couple instead of long texts illustrative examples from last week, which will prove that there are values ​​in Pinnacle.

Fabbiano - Clan. 2.22 for Fabbiano, 2.02 for Clan.

De Minaur - Southern. 1.79 on De Minaura, 2.60 on Yuzhny

De Minaur - Johnson. 2.90 for De Minaur, 1.92 for Johnson.

1.79 for De Minaur or 2.6 for Yuzhny? 2.22 for Fabbiano or 2.02 for Klan? 2.90 for De Minaur or 1.92 for Johnson?

One of the 2 coefficients is EXACTLY valued (simple mathematics), and it may well be that both are valued.

In such cases, it cannot be said that there are no Values ​​if, as in the match with Querrey - Raonic or Clan - Fabbiano, we are offered odds of more than two in both directions. Of course, not at the same time. And there are many such events, the odds move, and during a certain period of time, either at the beginning, or in the middle, or at the end, very often there are values. But these values ​​disappear relatively quickly (from a couple of minutes to a couple of hours).

If the bookmaker has set incorrect quotes, then professional players will quickly move the line in the right direction. But sometimes this line moves too much, in my opinion, and you can already flirt in the other direction. Not long ago there was a match between Shapovalov and Tim. And the betting mass began to overload Shapovalov, although it was competent and correct, I agreed with them, but they overloaded it so much that Tim was given 1.9, and this, in my opinion, was already too much. I considered Tim to be a 1.9 value bet, although before the match I didn’t even have the thought of flirting with Tim. I hope this has been sorted out.

What if quotes don't change at all?

From experience, there are usually much fewer values ​​in stable quotes. What is the chance that the value you found is not seen by most major players? Small. There is a chance when there is a nuance that everyone takes into account, but from experience you consider it “noise,” or vice versa. For example, Del Potro's fatigue before the match with Raonic. Everyone thinks that this will have no effect, but you think that it will be important in the upcoming meeting.

Or, for example, Zverev - Seppi in Rotterdam (quotes for P1/P2 did not change significantly). Almost everyone has forgotten that at the tournament in Rotterdam they play with balls from Technebrief, and not Head, which A. Zverev hates. As a result, both Ferrer and Seppi took almost all of Zverev’s first serves into the back court. As a result, everything worked out for Seppi, since Sasha’s serve did not work because of the balls. In general, like these mini-nuances.

But there are still more values ​​in those coefficients that have changed.

But how do you catch these things? How to monitor the movement of odds? How to be ready for the line to exit in order to quickly pick up your value?

How to “catch” valui in Pinnacle?

The main thing: you need to thoroughly understand your sport.

You need to watch matches, analyze all the data, even before the bookmaker rolls out the line, i.e. you need to determine the class of players, watch personal meetings, find out motivation, look at their last matches, statistics, see how the player performs against left-handers/right-handers, how he performs in this particular tournament, what his dynamics are during the tournament, whether he is tired or not, how much time he spent on the court, etc. etc.. In general, all your experience, all the data that is available, you collect and analyze. And perhaps you will form your own opinion about the probabilities of outcomes in the upcoming event. For example, 70% for player 1, 30% for player 2.

And it’s better to write this down somewhere before the line goes out. For example, the line Anderson – Coric comes out. I’m ready to play if they offer Coric +4 for 1.9, or I’m ready to play Anderson if they offer Kevin for 1.75, for example. You would consider Coric +4 a value bet and Anderson at 1.75 you could also consider a value bet. Also, you think that there will be a fight, and if they offer a total of more than 22 for 1.9, then you are also ready to play this rate, since in your opinion the probability of breaking the total is 65%. And before the line is pumped out for you, it is advisable that you already have your own outlines, sketches and thoughts of what you are ready to play.

But if you are not good at sports, then this is difficult to do. You will consider the bet to be a value bet, but in reality it will not be one.

Once you have your thoughts formed, you need to be ready for the line to come out, because once Pinnacle hits the line, you won't have very much time to play the value bet. If the bet is very valuable, then you will have about 5 minutes to play it. If it’s just a regular value bet, then you will have about 20-90 minutes to win the desired outcome.

Those. you need to be prepared for the line to go out.

How to find out when a line is released via Pinnacle?

The easiest way is to negotiate with a programmer so that he will develop software for you that would give you signals when the line for a given tournament is released. That is, if a line is released, say for the Indian Wells semi-final, then you immediately receive a signal to your software and you can immediately go to Pinnacle and see what is happening there. But it is clear that this is a rather specific topic and this software will not be cheap for you. I haven’t seen such options on the Internet, there are such beacons for football (the guys from mellbet made them), but there are no such beacons for tennis available on the network. But let’s assume that we don’t have that kind of money yet, we’re not ready to spend it on it, and we’re not yet sure that we’ll have anything in this area to spend the money on. Therefore, in this case, we will try to catch the coefficient manually.

We find our coefficient manually. How does this happen? We are finishing up matches, for example, ¼ finals. Both Del Potro and Raonic finished their match. After this, we have a certain countdown until the bookmaker does his analysis and rolls out the line.

In most cases, the first to roll out the line are the twin brothers, Marathon and 1xBet. After them usually comes Pinnacle. Focusing on quotes, Pinky and everyone else are already climbing out of the gorges with their quotes. We will focus on Marathon and Pinnacle.

Approximate time for the line to reach P1/P2:

1st round- The Marathon rolls out approximately half a day after the draw. - Pinnacle 4-6 hours after the Marathon. Occasionally 30 minutes to 1 hour after the Marathon, if the upcoming meetings are less than a day away.

2nd round - ¼ finals- The marathon rolls out 2-4 hours after the end last meeting. Depends on the stage/tournament/time. Conditional Dubai (500-nick + day) will roll out faster than Sao Paulo (250-nick + night). - Pinnacle will roll out 15 minutes - 1 hour after the Marathon (sometimes a little faster than the Marathon)

½ finals - final- Marathon 10 minutes - 1 hour after the end of the meetings. - Pinnacle, approximately 30 minutes after the Marathon.

This is all for the main outcomes. What about handicaps, totals and other things?

Let's take a closer look at handicaps and totals:

At Marathon, the main line of handicaps and totals (with odds around 1.9) comes out simultaneously with P1/P2. Those. All time frames described above are also suitable for handicaps with totals. All that remains is to deal with the pinnacle.

1st round- from 1 hour to 5 hours after the release of quotes on P1/P2. You can’t guess exactly: Pinnacle rolled out to Acapulco in 30 minutes, and to Dubai in 5 hours

2nd round - final- In 2/3 of cases, 1 hour after the release of P1/P2 in Pinnacle.

Around this time you need to be online, you need to go to oddsportal.com or directly to Pinnacle and monitor when the line for the desired match comes out.

Minus: LIMITS. The line that just came out (fresh) has quite unpleasant limits on one bet. For ATP qualification, challenger or left match of the 1st round, it can cost $300-500. But that doesn't mean you can't put down a larger amount. You just need to bet $500 10 times. Naturally, after each bet you make, the odds may change.

What to do if the new line does not contain value odds, in your opinion?

There is no trial. In this case, we are waiting for the quotes to change and, perhaps, the change in quotes will lead to the fact that we still receive, in our opinion, a value coefficient. But there is a day before the match, it is quite difficult to monitor the whole day every 30-60 minutes how the odds change.

So we download the PinnacleSports app, register, and find the match we need. We go into the desired match and see the main outcomes (W1/W2) and the main totals and handicaps, clicking on some outcome, we will see a graph of changes in odds.

For example, let's take the match: Del Potro - Raonic. Let's say we consider odds = 3 on Raonic - we value. We enter under the graph the value in our opinion of the value coefficient. If the odds on Raonic become equal to 3 (or more), then we will receive a notification. This is quite convenient because as soon as this quote reaches 3, you can quickly place a bet.

Works for W1/W2 and main outcomes based on handicaps and totals. If you want to bet on a +3 handicap, then you need to monitor it yourself.

This is suitable not only if you use and bet at Pinnacle, because... The vast majority of bookmakers move the line according to the pinnacle, therefore, in other offices, most likely, the quotes will also change, only with a delay, which is even better for you. Therefore, if you bet somewhere completely different, in the conditional FonBet, FonBet will still move the line along with the global community.

This is actually how the “catching” of valuevs occurs. I call it catching, because they usually don’t lie around in a visible place for a long time.

Let's summarize. How do we look for value?

1. You need to thoroughly understand your chosen sport.
2. We analyze upcoming events.
3. We assume which odds are valuable for us. We write them down somewhere in a notebook or somewhere in a laptop or phone.
4. We are waiting for Pinnacle to roll out its line (approximate time intervals above)
5. If, in your opinion, there are value coefficients, then we review everything again, if everything is ok, we flirt.
6. If, in your opinion, there are no values ​​there, go to the Pinnacle application and enter, in our opinion, value odds into the alerts.
7. If the quote reaches the value we need, then we will immediately receive a notification and we will be able to play the selected outcome (+ we check if any news has come out that could affect the growth of the odds).

All. I hope this was helpful. Good luck!

The phrase “Money is king” means that money is often the best tool for achieving goals. The same can be said about betting, since monitoring the movement of funds can help improve your results.

Many are confident that The best way determine the result of a future competition - monitor cash flows. Understanding market movements can help predict the future in everything from sports betting to major events.

An indicative case occurred in 2003. The Pentagon sponsored an experiment called the terrorism futures market. The idea was to allow traders to speculate on terrorism, which would allow the security services to obtain the necessary information.

The idea that people can profit from betting on Act of terrorism, caused sharp discontent in society and the experiment was canceled 24 hours after the announcement. The creation of a "terrorism futures market" proves the point that everything has a price.

Sports betting is no exception.

For example, a sharp reduction in betting odds on tennis players is a sign that many people have deep confidence in a particular athlete to win.

Changing the odds does not guarantee he or she will win, but if you bet on a given match, you can decide who you trust more - the markets or yourself.

You should listen to when "money talks" at Pinnacle Sports by paying due attention to a phenomenon called "Pinnacle Lean".

Pinnacle Lean

Pinnacle Sports has a reputation as the go-to site for understanding the betting market.

Many lazy bookmakers borrow Pinnacle Sports odds (adding higher margins) before opening their markets to customers. The "Voice of Money" on the Pinnacle Sports website is so important that they even gave it a name - Pinnacle Lean.

Why? Because Pinnacle Sports' unique business model is based on providing best odds and high limits, as well as the absence of common account restrictions. This attracts professional players who want to increase their profit potential.

Unlike other bookmakers, Pinnacle Sports uses its own professional traders to place early lines with reduced limits. What happens next depends on competent players who move the market and increase the limits over time.

If the match betting line moves, it always starts at Pinnacle Sports

Odds always move earlier on Pinnacle Sports than on other bookmaker sites.

Our unbeatable odds and high limits, along with a no-holds-barred policy for winning players, make Pinnacle Sports the bookmaker for serious professionals.

In addition, Pinnacle Sports allows its players to track the movement of the odds using our dynamic lines that show the direction of the odds movement.

Therefore, on Pinnacle Sports, all players can place bets with high limits and excellent odds. Although our goal is to ensure a balanced game, smart players sometimes manage to place two maximum limit bets on the selected team before the line begins to move.

Low margins ensure high volumes. This means that the odds are the result of the natural market situation. Traditional sportsbooks with expensive markets between 105% and 112% receive lower volumes, so their prices do not reflect the actual market situation. If you want to know the "fair" market price for a match, check out the Pinnacle Sports odds one hour before kickoff.

This information helps punters make money in the future by placing bets on odds better than Pinnacle Sports odds (outside the market), taking into account that our site is a reliable guide to market opinion.

You can win more on all major sports if you find a handicap or total that is 1.5 points better than Pinnacle Sports with similar odds.